交易和成功风险管理的125条箴言

 交易和成功风险管理的125条箴言

期货日报编者按理查J. 费尔兹(Richard J. Feltes) 是美国瑞富投资集团公司（REFCO）的商品研究副总裁兼粮食、菜籽油高级分析师。他于1970年毕业于伊利诺斯大学农业专业,1972年获得南伊利诺斯大学MBA学位,1973年就职于大陆谷物公司（ContiCommodity Services）,1984年进入REFCO公司。
费尔兹以通过数据预测农产品的价格而著称。他所管理的REFCO全球研究网是期货业实时分析的重要消息来源之一。REFCO公司吸引大量跨国食品公司成为其客户的原因之一应归功于费尔兹在谷物价格上富有洞察力的分析。
在大商所成立十周年之际,费尔兹应邀访问了大商所。为此次中国之行,他特意将多年来的期货从业经验总结成125条箴言,作为礼物送给中国投资者。经作者本人同意,期货日报从今天开始对其进行连载。
1. Plan your trades and trade yourplans. 
为你的交易做好计划；按你的计划执行交易。
2. Hope and fear are the two greatestenemies of speculators. 
期冀和恐惧是投机者两个最大的敌人。
3. Keep records of your trading results.
对你的交易结果做好纪录。
4. Maintain a positive attitude nomatter how much you lose. 
不管你输了多少,保持一个积极的态度。
5. Avoid overconfidence——it could beyour greatest enemy. 
不要过分自信——它会成为你最大的仇敌。
6. Continually set higher trading goals.
不断设定更高的交易目标。
7. Stops are the key to success for manytraders——limit your losses! 
设定止损是很多交易者成功的关键——限制你的亏损！
8. The most successful traders are thosethat trade long term. 
最成功的交易商是做长线交易的交易商。
9. Successful traders buy into bad news ＆sell into good news. 
成功的交易者在坏消息时买,在好消息时卖。
10. The successful trader is not afraidto buy high ＆sell low. 
成功的交易者不怕在高位时买进,在低位时卖出。
11. Successful traders have a wellscheduled planned time for studyingthe markets. 
成功的交易者有效地规划时间来进行市场研究。
12. Successful traders set profitobjectives for each trade they enter. 
成功的交易者为他们所做的每一笔交易都设定有赢利目标。
13. Do not collect the opinions ofothers before entering trades——factsare priceless——opinions are worthless. Inshort successful traders isolatethemselves from the opinions of others. 
不要在还没进入交易以前就到处征求意见——事实价值无穷、意见一文不值。简单地说,成功的交易者不为别人的意见所左右。
14. Continually strive for patience,perseverance, determination, andrational action. 
不断地为耐心、毅力、决断和理性的行为作努力。
15. Never get out of the market justbecause you have lost patience orget into the market because you are anxiousfrom waiting. 
决不要因为失去耐心而退出市场,也决不要因为迫不及待而进入市场。
16. Avoid getting in or out of themarket too often. 
进出市场不要过于频繁。
17. The most profitable trading tool issimply following the trend. 
最佳的赢利方法就是跟随趋势。
18. Never change your position in themarket without a good reason. Whenyou make a trade, let it be for some goodreason or according to a definiteplan; then do not get out without a definiteindication of a change in trend. 
除非有充分的理由,不要改变你在市场里的头寸。每做一手交易时,你都要有可以依据的理由或者明确的计划；此后,除非有明确的趋势改变的迹象,不要退出。
19. Losses make the speculatorstudious——not profits. Take advantage ofevery loss to improve your knowledge ofmarket action. 
赔钱不能赢利,但能使投机者细心钻研。抓住每一次赔钱的机会,改进你对市场行为的了解。
20. The most difficult task inspeculation is not prediction but self－control.Successful trading is difficult andfrustrating. You are the most importantelement in the success equation. 
在投机里最难的任务不是预测,而是自我控制。成功的交易是艰难和令人烦恼的交易。在成功的等式里,你是最重要的因素。
21. The basic substance of price changeis human emotion. Panic, fear,greed, insecurity, anxiety, stress, anduncertainty are the primary sources ofshort－termpricechange. 
价格变化的基本要素是人的情感。慌乱、恐惧、贪婪、不安全感、担心、压力和犹豫不定,这些是短期价格变动的主要根源。
22. Bullish consensus is typically atits high when the market is at atop. Also there are few bulls at major bottoms.
典型地说,当市场在顶部时,异口同声地看多的人最多；在重大的底部时,很少有人持牛市的观点。
23. Watch the spreads i.e., don^t bebullish if inverses are narrowing. 
注意多空套做。也就是说,如果逆差在减小,不要看多。
24. Remember that a bear market willgive up in one month what a bullmarket has taken 3 months to build. 
记住,一个月的熊市能让你失去在三个月的牛市中所得到的。
25. Identify “the dominant factor” ineach commodity. Be prepared toredefine this factor as conditions change. 
找到每一种商品期货里的“决定性因素”。随着情况的变化,随时准备重新判定着一因素。
26. Expand your sources for market infobut limit your sources for marketopinion. 
扩充你的市场信息来源；限制你的市场意见来源。
27. Don’teverallow a big winning trade to turn into a loser. Stop yourself out if marketmovesagainst you 20％fromyour peak profit point. 
永远不要让一场大赢的交易转变为输家。如果市场使你的赢利从最高处下滑了20％,止损出市。
28. It is never possible to knoweverything about anything. A commoditytrader is in constant danger. 
没有人能够做到万事皆知。从事期货交易总要面临危险。
29. Successful trading requires fourthings. Knowledge, disciplinedcourage, money, and the energy to merge the first3 properly. 
交易要具备四大要素才能成功：知识、控制得当的勇气、金钱以及将这三者妥善结合在一起的精力。
30. Expect and accept losses gracefully.Those who brood over lossesalways miss the next opportunity, which more thanlikely will be profitable. 
预见到会有亏损,雍容大度地接受亏损。那些对亏损苦思冥想的人总是失去下一个机会,而下一个机会很可能是个赢利的机会。
31. The one essential ingredient tomaking money with money and keepingit is having an organized effort. 
用钱来挣钱以及保住钱的一个根本要素是做事要有板有眼。
32. Unless you progress, you gobackwards. Once you complete a tradinggoal it is crucial that you immediatelyset a new goal. 
不进则退。要紧的是一旦实现了一个交易目标,你应该立刻设定一个新的目标。
33. The art of concentration can helpyou become a great trader. In otherwords, set aside time to think, plan,meditate, investigate, research, analyze,evaluate and select your tradescarefully. 
专心致志的艺术能够帮助你成为一个杰出的交易者。也就是说,安排出时间来仔细地思考、计划、琢磨、调查、研究、分析、衡量和选择你的交易。
34. Split your profits right down themiddle and never risk more than 50％of them again in the market. 
把你的盈利一分为二,决不拿其中的百分之五十以上再到市场上去冒险。
35. The key to successful trading is inknowing yourself and in knowingyour stress point. 
成功交易的关键是了解你自己以及知道你自己对压力的承受能力。
36. The real difference between winnersand losers is not so much nativeability as it is discipline exercised inavoiding mistakes. 
成功者和失败者之间的真正区别,与其说是天生的能力,还不如说是在避免错误中表现的有素的训练。
37. The greatest risk for a commoditytrader is to rely on hope alone.Never substitute hope for facts. The greatestloss is loss of self－confidence.
期货交易商的最大的错误就是把一切都寄托在希望上。永远不要用希望来取代事实。自信心的失落是最大的亏损。
38. You cannot perform very well forvery long with your shoes nailed tothe floor. In trading as in fencing thereare the quick and the dead. 
你不可能在原地不动而持久地表现出色。交易就像击剑,不是快速运动,就是身败剑下。
39. Remember Mark Twain: “only10％of thepeople think. 10％thinkthey think. The other 80％would rather die than think.”
记住马克·土温说的：“只有百分之十的人思考,百分之十的人认为他们思考,其余百分之八十的人宁死也不愿思考。”
40. The man who goes to the top as acommodity trader does not do as hepleases. He has trained himself to choosecorrectly between the two freedoms:the freedom to do as he pleases, and thefreedom to do what he must do. 
期货交易高手做事不是随心所欲。他把自己训练得知道怎样在两种自由中作正确的选择：随心所欲的自由和非做不可的自由。
41. Since there is always thepossibility of surprise in thin, dead markets,less capital should be riskedthere than in markets which are broad and moving.
因为在窄小的、停滞的市场里总有出乎意料的可能,在这样的市场里应该比在宽广的、运动的市场里投入较少的资本来承担风险。
42. Limit the risk in any one trade to amaximum of 10％and the risk in all open trades to a maximum of 25％of trading capital. (risk = pct of availablecapital). Determine this each day,adding profits and subtracting losses inopen trades, and combine this netfigure with your trading capital. 
将你每一手交易的风险控制在百分之十以内。将你所有持仓的交易的总风险控制在最多不超过交易资本的百分之二十五（风险=可用资本的百分比）。每天对此加以计算,在持仓交易中加上盈利,减去亏损,再把这一数字同你的交易资本结合起来。
43. It does not take much capital totrade a market if one has knowledgeand understanding. St. Paulsaid, “when I amweak I am strong.” 
如果你懂得和理解一个市场,做交易并不需要很多资本。圣保尔说过,“我在软弱时则强壮”。
44. Speech may be silver but “Silence isGolden”. Traders with the goldentouch do not talk. 
言谈可能是银子,可“沉默是金子”。有点金术的交易商稀于言谈。
45. Common trading errors include: A)trading without good reasons. B)trading on hope rather than facts. C)overloading without regard for capital. 
常见的交易错误包括：A、理由不充分的交易；B、基于希望多于事实的交易；C、与资本不相称的超量交易。
46. “I like the short side of the marketbecause there is usually lesscompany”. The mob is usually wrong. It is usuallylong. 
“我喜欢市场看空的一边,因为通常这里人要少一些”。蜂拥之众通常是错的,它通常是看多。
47. A fatal mistake made by thefundamental trader is to take smallprofits. This is the result of limitedvision ??? extremes always seem silly tomen of so called good judgment. 
初学交易的人的一个致命的错误是稍有赢利就出手。这是目光短浅的结果——对所谓的明智的人来说,走极端总是愚蠢的。
48. Trade only when you have a goodreason on an appraisal offundamentals and using chart action for confirmationand timing of entry andexit. 
只有当你根据基本面的分析作出估价,运用图表行为加以证实,并策划好入市和出市的时间,只有当这些加在一起为你提供了充足的理由时,再做交易。
49. Believe that “the big one ispossible” ——be there when it starts. Havethe gross power to act, be restedmentally and physically, and finally let yourprofits run and cut your lossesquickly. 
相信“大的未必不可能”——一旦大的发生了,不至于手忙脚乱。让综合的力量自己行动,精神上和肉体上都休息充分,最终让你的利润滚动,迅速地砍掉你的损失。
50. Dream big dreams and think tall.Very few people set goals too high.A man becomes what he thinks about all daylong. 
大胆做梦,敢于想象。很少有人把目标设得过高。一个人从早到晚在思考什么,他最终就变成什么。
51.Commodity trading is the art ofregarding fear as the greatest sin andgiving up as the greatest mistake. It isthe art of accepting failure as a steptoward victory. 
期货交易是一门把恐惧看作是最大的罪恶,把放弃看作是最大的错误的艺术。它是一门把接受失败看作是向胜利走近一步的艺术。
52.Have you taken a loss? Forget itquick. If you have taken a profit,forget it quicker. Don’t let ego and greedinhibit clear thinking and hardwork. 
你输过吗？尽快忘了它。你要是赢过,忘它忘得更快一些。不要让自我和贪婪妨碍清晰的思维和刻苦的工作。
53.The characteristics of realizing bullmarket are: 
a.a fundamental bullish situation 
b.a reluctance by specs to buy 
c.an inversion or small carrying chargebetween cash and futures 
d.business interests are either cautiousor bullish 
识别牛市有下列的特征：
a.从基本面上看,有一个牛市的情势
b.专业商不情愿去买
c.现货同期货之间倒挂或只有少量的持有费用
d.商业兴趣或者是持谨慎态度,或者是看多
54.Always remember that weather marketsare mercurial, extreme in pricefluctuations, and very difficult to master.Forecasts of weather beyond a fewdays are not reliable. 
始终记住,气候市场是变幻无常,价格变动剧烈,极难把握的市场。几天之外的天气预报就不可靠。
55.One cannot do anything aboutyesterday. When one door closes, anotherdoor opens. The greater opportunitynearly always lies through the open door. 
没有人能改变昨天发生的事。当一扇门关上时,另一扇门就打开了。越过打开的门,往往能找到更大的机会。
56.The deepest secret for the trader isto subordinate his will to thewill of the market. The market is truth as itreflects all forces that bearupon it. As long as he recognizes this, he issafe. When he ignores it, he islost. 
对交易者来说,最深的秘密就是放弃自己的意愿,屈从于市场的意愿。市场是真理,它反映出它所承担的所有的力量。只要交易者认识到这一点,他就是安全的。当他忽视这一点时,他就会失败。
57.Somewhere a change is occurring thatcan make you rich. 
在某一地方某种变化正在发生,它能使你变得富有。
58.Beware of “fools disease” (i.e.Waiting for trades that you’re sureare 100 pct profitable.) It is better neverto let yourself believe that youare 100 pct sure of anything. 
警惕“愚人病”（也就是等待那些你百分之百肯定会赢利的交易）。你最好别让你自己相信你能对任何一件事百分之百地肯定。
59.A known fundamental is a uselessfundamental. 
人人皆知的基本原理是毫无用处的基本原理。
60.Major trends are seldom broken unlessmarket goes against trend formore than 3 consecutive days. 
除非市场连续三天同潮流走反向,主要潮流很少会转移方向。  

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